Recommendation: BUY, target price upto CAD$ 2.17 (including trading costs)
Share Price: CAD$ 2.15
Market Cap: CAD$ 17.9m
Free Float: 28.9%
Ave. Daily Trade Volume: CAD$ 1,288
This investment comes out of our previous involvement in Genterra and is focused on creating the spin-off entity Gencan at a reasonable return on equity over the life of the solar feed in tariff. We have written extensively about Genterra during our hold period and the key post describing the spin-off entity and how we value it is here.
Last week we loaded up on Genterra securities as they represented an excellent return on contracted cash flow. In creating the position we had to factor in the following two considerations:
- Position sizing post the demerger dividend – at the top end of our buy range only 10% of capital deployed will remain as the final position in Gencan. Obviously if we achieved better pricing than CAD$ 2.17 our stub position would represent an even smaller % of capital deployed.
- Trading fees – when creating the stub position for a maximum price of CAD$ 0.21 you have to be very sensitive to the effective creation price including your trading fees which changes depending on how many shares your purchase per trade (i.e. how spread out your fixed trading costs are). As a result of these factors it made sense for us to acquire 510 shares at CAD$ 2.0 which created the company to a 39.1% IRR in our downside case but if we have acquired 510 shares at our maximum buy price of CAD$ 2.17 our IRR would be only 10.9% which is below our target price of 15.0% IRR
Included below is an overview of how we calculated target trading levels depending on the amount of securities that were offered in the market
On the question of sizing we think this is very good risk as you are acquiring a fixed set of cash flows that have been set by the government with the energy being taken by the government (Ontario Power Authority). The only way for these cash flows to change would be by operation of law as you have seen in Spain which we see as unlikely to occur in Canada. As a result in the rosiest picture you could argue that you are buying a proxy for Canadian sovereign risk significantly wide of where their long dated bonds which trade at a Yield to Worse of 2.27% (unfortunately for what we can see Canada only have 21 sovereign bonds out and the longest maturities are 2021 and 2064 so we chose 2064 as the length of the contract goes to 2034)
We would have liked to have Gencan be a 7.5% position in the portfolio but mathematically we would have had to deploy more cash than we have available in the fund. Instead we took the view that we would deploy all our available cash less 7.5% in case we stumbled across another position we really liked. We expect the spin-off transaction to consummate before year end and to be left with a 5.7% position based on total net portfolio value as of Q3 2015.
In total we completed the following trades last week taking us to a full position size:
Our net Genterra creation price of CAD$ 2.109 creates Gencan at a 22.5 – 26.9% IRR to renewable tariff expiry in 2034 and if held to maturity would represent a 3.9 – 4.6x MoM from contracted cash flow.
As with all investments there are risks which we split into pre & post spin off below:
- Pre Spin-Off – up to consummation of the transaction we will have 80.7% of our fund in Genterra which is scary. We got comfortable with this risk as the transaction is being proposed by the 70% shareholder so the risk of the conditions precedent not being fulfilled is low (our guess is that tax clearance is potentially the only element not in their control). We also get comfortable with this concentration given our view that the controlling shareholder is acquiring Genterra at a significant undervalue vs our CAD $2.90 a share valuation of the enterprise. Finally the nature of the business (real estate and renewables) is very stable so the chance of a material adverse change in the business seems low
- Post Spin-Off – we are faced with the same risks as we had when we invested in Genterra namely: (i) illiquidity of the security, (ii) controlling shareholder leaking value to themselves, and; (iii) poor capital allocation. Given our approach and focus we are inherently comfortable with risk (i) as it is the main driver of opportunity creation in our universe. We are more comfortable with risk (ii) as the controlling shareholder did conduct a valuation and got court approval for their take private of Genterra, however, we will just have to accept that if this happens at Gencan it will be at an undervalue and that the cost structure of the vehicle will not be optimised (which we reflect in our model). Finally we are probably most concerned with (iii) as the controlling shareholder may decide to use cash generated by the entity to invest in new solar projects at lower equity returns to either help with related party transactions or grow their fee base which would obviously dilute our return
Our model of Gencan can be found below:
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